On April 30, 2026, E3 hosted a webinar presenting the latest edition of its ERCOT electricity price forecast, covering recent market trends and a 25+ year outlook for the Texas power market. Senior Managing Consultant Emily Rogers and Senior Consultant Paula Charles led the presentation, with Associate Director Grant Freudenthaler and Director Dave Maggio joining for Q&A.
Please find the recording below. Slides are available here.
What’s happening in the market
ERCOT is expecting unprecedented load growth driven by data center development, economic growth, and large load interconnections. Data centers operate continuously around the clock, while large flexible loads have the ability to curtail during scarcity conditions. As these loads represent an increasing share of new load growth, a divergence has emerged between increasing energy growth and a relatively stable summer peak demand level. At the same time, winter conditions are tightening, driven by periods of high loads during non-solar hours, pointing to a system with more winter scarcity. The pace and timing of these new large loads, however, continues to introduce considerable uncertainty into long-term planning.
On the supply side, the recent buildout has been dominated by solar and storage, with wind development comparatively slow. Solar saturation is compressing midday prices and shifting value into evening and overnight hours, which is precisely when wind generates and large loads keep running. As a result, wind capture rates have begun to outperform solar, a reversal from the historical pattern that has implications for how the resource mix evolves going forward.
The long-term outlook
The E3 ERCOT Core Case forecast reflects base expectations of load growth and resource additions. Given key near-term uncertainties in the market, E3 developed three additional off-the-shelf market price scenarios: High Load Growth, Low Load Growth, and Constrained Wind Development, each reflecting a different view of the two biggest uncertainties in the market: the amount and speed at which large loads materialize and how wind development proceeds. The webinar also covers solar, wind, and storage economics including the implications of expiring tax credits on investment timing, and how resource value changes as the market evolves.
During the Q&A, the E3 team addressed questions on large flexible load modeling, bring-your-own-generation, renewable curtailment, negative prices, storage duration, DERs and ERCOT’s ongoing reliability standard assessment.
E3’s ERCOT forecast is available for purchase at the E3 Store, along with forecasts for every other major North American power market.
Purchase the ERCOT price forecast: shop.ethree.com
For further information on this presentation or E3’s ERCOT market price forecasting work, please contact Emily.Rogers@ethree.com and Paula.Charles@ethree.com.
