NEWS: Energy markets
Off-the-Shelf E3 Market Price Forecasts Available Through New E-Commerce Platform

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January 25, 2022

Due to client demand and interest, E3 is excited to offer our off-the-shelf market price forecasts through our new E-Commerce platform. Our forecasts have been developed and refined over many years of working with the most sophisticated clients on the most challenging, cutting-edge topics in the electricity industry—assessing how renewable energy and climate policies, new technologies, demand-side forces, and evolving costs will shape energy markets, price formation, and competition along various energy transition pathways. To-date, our forecasts have only been offered on a bespoke, bilateral basis to our clients, who have relied on them to inform everything from high-level strategy and investment decisions to the financing of existing and new assets.

We have assessed thousands of MWs of conventional, renewable, and storage assets in operation and under development at bulk, distribution, and retail levels across North America. Our forecasts and advice have led to billions of dollars of deployed capital across many asset classes ranging from multi-billion-dollar investor-owned utilities to smaller distributed energy resource portfolios. Our forecasts are considered investment-grade and bankable by the largest and most sophisticated financiers active in the market today. Our clients’ confidence is built on the foundation of our forecasts: technical and analytical rigor combined with transparency and intellectual honesty.

E3’s Core Case

Our price forecasts are built around a “Core Case” for each market, which encompasses E3’s expectation for how policies, regulations, technologies, economics, and customer demand will evolve to drive new resource additions, retirements, and market prices from today through 2050. In markets with strong decarbonization policies such as California and New York, our Core Case presents our view of the most reasonable, reliable, and low-cost way to achieve existing policy targets through current market structures and available technologies. In other markets which are driven more by economics (ERCOT) or a mix of policies and economics (PJM), our Core Case presents our view of the most likely path for a changing energy mix over time based on current costs and trends.

All of our Core Cases draw from E3’s industry-leading body of work with utilities, policy-makers, and investors in resource planning, reliability, distributed energy resources, emerging technologies, and decarbonization pathways. Our modeling ecosystem is flexible, transparent, and robust, allowing us to construct many different sensitivities around each Core Scenario to define an envelope of market expectations driven by traditional factors such as fuel prices, resource costs, and loads as well as emerging forces such as building and vehicle electrification. We usually perform this work in close consultation with our clients on a bespoke basis through bilateral engagements outside this E-Commerce platform.

The platform currently hosts our core fundamentals market price forecast for the CAISO, ERCOT, PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE markets. We will continue to add forecasts for additional technologies, markets, and scenarios as well.

filed under: Energy markets