As part of its 2019 Integrated Resource Plan, Xcel Energy retained E3 to conduct two independent analyses to support its IRP: (1) an economy-wide study for the state of Minnesota examining what would be needed to meet deep decarbonization goals throughout the economy (e.g. 80% reductions by 2050); and (2) a portfolio optimization and reliability analysis for Xcel’s portfolio to examine the costs of meeting the utility’s carbon reduction goals (80% reductions by 2030; 100% carbon-free by 2050).

E3’s statewide pathways study provided Xcel with a novel perspective on future electricity loads in the context of an economy-wide carbon reduction effort, showing how decarbonization measures such as building and transportation electrification could lead to significant long-term increases in load. These findings were used to inform a sensitivity analysis conducted within Xcel’s internal IRP modeling.

E3’s portfolio and reliability analyses were conducted in parallel with Xcel’s internal work to develop a forward-looking resource plan, testing the notion that an independent expert using advanced industry-standard methods would come to similar conclusions. E3 used RECAP for sophisticated loss-of-load-probability analysis and RESOLVE for optimal capacity expansion to design reliable, least-cost portfolios to meet carbon reduction goals, ultimately corroborating the findings in Xcel’s plan.

Publications

• Minnesota Decarbonization Scenarios: The Role of the Electric Sector
• Xcel Energy Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Decarbonizing the Generation Portfolio of Xcel Energy’s Upper Midwest System

E3 has provided comprehensive technical and advisory support to the Energy Division of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in its administration of the state’s IRP program, mandated by the passage of SB 350 in 2016.  E3 worked with CPUC staff to develop the structure of the IRP program including a three-year modeling cycle in which Staff prepares a system-wide plan that informs the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)’s annual Transmission Planning Process (TPP) and informs Load-Serving Entities integrated resource plans in alternate years.

E3 has helped the CPUC design an optimal “Preferred System Plan” for the combined utilities that incorporates the resource procurement plans of the LSEs and complies with the state’s clean energy policy requirements. In the 2020-2021 cycle, the policy requirements considered include a 60% RPS by 2030 and SB 100 by 2045, and a statewide greenhouse gas emissions target of 38 million metric tons (MMT) by 2030, while capturing the operational and reliability challenges encountered at high penetrations of variable renewable generation. E3 also supported the Energy Division’s development of a mid-term reliability order requiring the procurement of 11.5 GW of effective capacity by 2026. As part of this process, E3 evaluated dozens of scenarios reflecting alternative assumptions about load forecasts and electrification, resource costs, the availability of offshore wind and out-of-state wind, the ability of end-use loads to operate flexibly, and a variety of other input parameters.

On behalf of the Public Generating Pool (PGP), a group of hydro-owning public power entities in Washington and Oregon, E3 completed a study exploring the effectiveness of a range of policy mechanisms to decarbonize the electric sector. This study used RESOLVE, E3’s optimal capacity expansion model, to develop optimized generation portfolios for the region through 2050 that capture […]

• Read the Case Study

Publications

• Pacific Northwest Low Carbon Scenario Analysis – Technical Report
• Pacific Northwest Low Carbon Scenario Analysis
• Public Generating Pool_2018 Pacific NW Scenarios and Sensitivities_Final Report
• Climate Solutions_2018 Pacific NW Scenarios and Sensitivities_Final Report
• National Grid_2018 Pacific NW Scenarios and Sensitivities_Final Report

E3 has provided procurement and rate-making advice to Wyoming’s Lower Valley Energy (LVE) since 2001. Our long-term procurement plans have carefully addressed LVE’s need to mitigate cost increases due to changes in either market prices of energy or Bonneville Power Administration’s rates. We have also helped LVE assess the merits of different rate structures and compare the value of building generation in its own service territory with the costs of building new transmission facilities to access alternative power sources. Most recently, we provided an independent evaluation of the costs and benefits of a potential merger with a neighboring co-op utility.