Director
Tory Clark

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Tory Clark

Tory Clark leads projects focusing on U.S. state-level climate policy, energy infrastructure planning, and low-carbon technologies. She provides clients with rigorous technical modeling as well as practical, accessible translations of complex analyses to inform energy and climate policy.

Tory has extensive experience helping U.S. states chart policy pathways to reach long-term greenhouse gas reduction goals, both within and outside the electricity sector. Two recent projects identified measures to reduce transportation sector emissions in line with state targets for the Minnesota Dept. of Transportation and illustrated the role of Minnesota’s electricity sector in decarbonizing the state’s economy as part of Xcel Energy’s 2019 Integrated Resource Plan. She has also led E3 projects for the California Air Resources Board, Maryland Dept. of the Environment, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), and Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality, among others.

Tory likes knowing that her work is helping policy makers, utilities, and investors lay the foundation for a low-carbon economy. Before joining E3 in 2015, she spent five years helping developing countries create long-term energy and climate plans using the LEAP model, an experience that impressed upon her the vital and varied roles that different regions will play in the global push toward deep decarbonization. She continues to work to help stakeholders understand their region’s role in the overall transition to climate mitigation policies, both in the U.S. and globally.

Education: MS, technology and policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; BS, mechanical engineering, Tufts University

Projects

Pacific Northwest Pathways to 2050 | NW Natural, 2018

E3 analyzed regional 2050 decarbonization scenarios for the Pacific Northwest on behalf of NW Natural, a gas distribution business in Oregon and Southwest Washington. Unlike prior studies, E3’s focused on space heating technologies: both how they perform in cold temperatures and affect the costs of serving heating loads. E3 analyzed four scenarios — two maintaining direct use of gas in buildings, and two assuming large-scale building electrification — and found similar 2050 costs among the gas and cold-climate electric heat pump scenarios, and higher costs in the standard electric heat pump scenario. Gas scenarios require three things beyond the decarbonization strategies common to all scenarios: reducing the carbon intensity of natural gas by blending up to 30 percent carbon-neutral renewable natural gas (RNG) and hydrogen; high building energy efficiency; and deeper GHG reductions in non-building sector emissions. Electrification scenarios require rapid consumer adoption of electric heating technologies, especially cold-climate heat pumps, and significant electricity sector investments to address winter peak demand from electric space heating.

Publications

Economic analysis of market-based carbon reduction | Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2016–2017

E3 worked with the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) to evaluate the economic impacts of adopting a carbon market in Oregon, per the directive of the State Legislature (SB 5701). E3 performed a detailed literature review of cap and trade programs and impacts across North America and Europe. We also developed an economic analysis of Oregon’s climate policies, including an estimate of the potential macroeconomic impacts of cap and trade in Oregon. E3 evaluated two categories of climate policies: (1) ‘complementary policies,’ which are the policies that drive GHG emissions reductions outside of the carbon market (e.g. the renewable portfolio standard and energy efficiency programs), and (2) different configurations of a future carbon market. E3 modeled the complementary policies in the energy-accounting model LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system), and the impacts of the carbon market using the IMPLAN macroeconomic model. The results of this study were presented to Oregon stakeholders in January 2017, and the Oregon DEQ presented the study results to the Oregon Legislature for consideration in February 2017.

 

Publications

New York GHG scenario analysis | NYSERDA, 2016–present

E3 is supporting the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) in developing a detailed GHG analysis to quantify the infrastructure and policy changes necessary to meet state climate and energy goals. We are evaluating the GHG and cost implications of a variety of scenarios that are consistent with New York’s goal of reducing statewide GHG emissions by 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. In this work, E3 developed a user-friendly PATHWAYS model on the LEAP software platform for NYSERDA, as well as other modeling tools to support evaluating costs and options to decarbonize the electricity sector.

California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan | CARB, 2016–2017

E3 supported the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in developing an updated “Scoping Plan” strategy for achieving California’s 2030 greenhouse gas target. California Senate Bill 32 (Pavley, 2016) requires the state to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. E3’s analysis evaluated the GHG and cost implications of different 2030 scenarios that are consistent with the state’s current policies and GHG target. For this project, E3 updated the California PATHWAYS model to reflect scenarios and input assumptions requested by the CARB. The model results were translated into inputs to a macroeconomic model (REMI) in analysis performed by the CARB to evaluate impacts to statewide economic growth and jobs. E3’s study results were presented in public stakeholder workshops and are reflected in the final Scoping Plan published in November 2017.

 

 

Time-dependent valuation for building codes | CEC, 1999–present

E3 supports the California Energy Commission (CEC) in implementing the state building energy code by maintaining the economic framework for energy standard requirements and allowed trade-offs for new construction. We have worked with the CEC and its stakeholders since 1999 to continually refine a time-dependent valuation (TDV) methodology, and we are now supporting the life-cycle cost analysis for measures proposed in the 2019 cycle. The TDV methodology uses a 30-year forecast of the social cost of energy that varies hourly and by location to account for shifts in system peaks over time, and regional variations in climate and grid utilization. In the 2019 code cycle, E3 is evaluating the cost-effectiveness of California’s goal to require that all new residential buildings be zero net energy by 2020 and that nonresidential buildings be zero net energy by 2030. We are also assessing the economic and GHG emission impacts of switching to all-electric housing and the value of integrating controllable thermostats and appliances into new buildings.

Publications


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