E3 supported the Hawaiʻi State Energy Office in the development of a report to the State Legislature evaluating long-term pathways to economywide decarbonization in Hawaiʻi and recommending new policies to ensure the achievement of the state’s decarbonization goals. E3 supported the Hawaiʻi State Energy Office in this effort by developing long-term decarbonization scenarios using the PATHWAYS model to explore the tradeoffs between different pathways to achieving Hawaiʻi’s goals.

The report affirms and recommends maintaining the state’s economy-wide emissions reduction target of 50% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels. The analysis shows that while challenging to achieve, with high levels of energy efficiency and conservation, renewable energy, and natural carbon sinks, among other measures, this ambitious goal is within reach.

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E3 provided analysis in support of the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU) December 2023 Order in the 20-80 “Future of gas” proceeding, which sets a new regulatory framework for the future of natural gas distribution in support of the Commonwealth’s climate goals. The DPU recommended the E3 team’s analysis in support of the 20-80 proceeding, writing:

“The Department commends the LDCs and their Consultants for their comprehensive effort in estimating the costs and economy-wide GHG emissions reductions involved in transitioning the natural gas system. The Department fully recognizes the difficulty in assessing these multidimensional challenges and expresses its appreciation for the comprehensive Pathways Report.”

E3 developed and analyzed eight decarbonization pathways and six regulatory design recommendations as part of a multi-year engagement examining the role of local gas distribution companies (LDCs) in Massachusetts in achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Commonwealth by 2050. In addition to the Decarbonization Pathways Study, which was developed as part of the Commonwealth’s 20-80 proceeding, E3 assisted each of the LDCs in their filing of a Net Zero Enablement Plan that included LDC-specific recommendations and plans to support the Commonwealth’s decarbonization goals. This project also involved a broad modeling framework designed by E3 as well as an extensive stakeholder process aimed at gauging stakeholder perspectives on gas decarbonization.

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E3 provided scenario analysis to support the US Climate Alliance’s 2023 Annual Report which highlighted the progress Alliance members have already made toward reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and using E3’s modeling, detailed multiple scenarios of Alliance-wide GHG emissions through 2050. E3 evaluated Alliance-wide GHG emissions through 2050 using E3’s PATHWAYS model to map out the trajectory of current policies including the Inflation Reduction Act, proposed federal actions, and additional ambitious collective actions for Alliance states or the federal government. These scenarios highlighted the gap between current policies and GHG targets and quantified the impact of incremental measures and actions. E3 also evaluated the benefits and costs of achieving net zero GHG emissions, including health benefits, climate benefits, and direct costs of fuels and clean infrastructure, showcasing net savings through 2050 of decarbonization.

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E3 worked with the World Resources Institute (WRI) to develop four scenarios of increasing ambition to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across all sectors of the United States economy using E3’s US PATHWAYS and RESOLVE models. E3 collaborated with WRI to develop robust scenario definitions, collect publicly available data and assumptions, and create interactive spreadsheet results. The goal of the study was to understand the effect of high-impact federal policies on achieving 50% emissions reduction by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. The analysis demonstrates the importance of key near-term building blocks, including: 1) aligning economics for customers and companies to adopt clean energy technologies; 2) aligning policy and institutions to remove barriers to technology deployment; 3) increasing consumer awareness and education to unlock higher levels of adoption; and 4) creating a transition plan for fossil fuel jobs to ensure a smooth transition.

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E3 provided modeling and scenario analysis to support the US Climate Alliance’s 2021 Annual Report. The report highlights the progress Alliance members have already made toward reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and using E3’s modeling, details multiple scenarios of Alliance-wide GHG emissions through 2050. E3 evaluated Alliance-wide GHG emissions through 2050 using E3’s PATHWAYS and RESOLVE models. The GHG emissions scenarios E3 developed for the Alliance highlighted the gap between the GHG reductions that would be possible with proposed state and federal policies and the reductions necessary to meet established federal targets. E3 also modeled the emissions impacts of the collective actions that would help bridge that gap.

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E3 is supporting NYSERDA in its analysis to inform the Climate Action Council’s Scoping Plan. E3 has developed scenarios showing how New York could achieve carbon neutrality as outlined in the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). This work includes a detailed analysis of buildings, transportation, industry, electricity generation, non-combustion, low-carbon fuels, and negative emissions using E3’s suite of modeling tools (PATHWAYS, RESOLVE, and RECAP) and parallel modeling efforts at NYSERDA. E3 also assessed the economy-wide cost of decarbonization and compared it to the societal benefits of reduced greenhouse gas emissions and monetized benefits of improved air quality through reduced combustion. E3’s work includes detailed modeling of the CLCPA electric sector targets, including the 70×30 and 100×40 goals as well as technology-specific targets such as the 9 GW offshore wind target.

To support the development of its 2021 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), Omaha Public Power District (OPPD) engaged E3 to perform a comprehensive study on various pathways for OPPD to achieve net zero carbon by 2050. With a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, OPPD sought a study to understand different pathways to achieve their target emissions, reliability, costs, and generation. E3’s study consisted of three primary phases: multi-sector modeling using the E3 PATHWAYS model to develop multiple electricity sector demand forecasts; reliability and resiliency analysis using the E3 RECAP model; and portfolio optimization using the E3 RESOLVE model to develop cost-optimal electricity portfolios that achieved both net-zero carbon and target reliability by 2050. E3 found that OPPD can achieve net zero while balancing affordability and reliability and that all net zero pathways require a cessation of coal generation and reduced use of fossil generation. A mix of new low-carbon resources including renewable energy, energy storage, and community-wide energy efficiency will be required as well as firm capacity resources, which will be needed to maintain resource adequacy.

E3 was retained by three of California’s largest electric utilities – Southern California Edison (SCE), Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD), and the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) – to explore the consumer costs and emissions reduction potential associated with the electrification of California homes. The study examines costs, savings, and emissions for electric and gas appliances in six different home types in geographical areas covering over half the state’s population. Unlike prior studies, it closely evaluates the consumer cost perspective on building electrification and quantifies GHG emissions savings by home type. E3 found that building electrification would deliver lifecycle cost savings for most home types in the study area. For homes with air conditioning – about 80 percent of the total – the economics are particularly strong: all new construction homes and the vast majority (84 percent) of existing single-family homes with A/C would save by going all-electric. E3 also found that electrification would significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from homes – starting today. For example, a Sacramento home built in the 1990s would immediately cut its GHG emissions nearly in half by switching to all-electric appliances; by 2050, with a significantly cleaner electric grid, the GHG savings would grow to over 80 percent (and more, if California achieves carbon neutrality).

E3 is supporting the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) in developing a detailed GHG analysis to quantify the infrastructure and policy changes necessary to meet state climate and energy goals. We are evaluating the GHG and cost implications of a variety of scenarios that are consistent with New York’s goal of reducing statewide GHG emissions by 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. In this work, E3 developed a user-friendly PATHWAYS model on the LEAP software platform for NYSERDA, as well as other modeling tools to support evaluating costs and options to decarbonize the electricity sector.

E3 worked with the Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas) to evaluate the potential of decarbonized pipeline gas fuels and the existing pipeline infrastructure to help meet California’s long-term climate goals. “Decarbonized pipeline gas” refers to gaseous fuels—including biogas—with a net-zero or very low GHG impact. E3 used its PATHWAYS model to evaluate two scenarios, one with heavy electrification of buildings and vehicles and one with a mix of electrification and decarbonized pipeline gas. Both were found capable of meeting the state’s 2050 climate goals with comparable total costs within the ranges of uncertainty that we evaluated. The results of the study suggest that the use of decarbonized gas distributed through the state’s existing pipeline network would complement a low-carbon electrification strategy. SoCalGas has used the results of this study to inform its energy and climate policy positions in California.

E3 supported the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in developing an updated “Scoping Plan” strategy for achieving California’s 2030 greenhouse gas target. California Senate Bill 32 (Pavley, 2016) requires the state to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. E3’s analysis evaluated the GHG and cost implications of different 2030 scenarios that are consistent with the state’s current policies and GHG target. For this project, E3 updated the California PATHWAYS model to reflect scenarios and input assumptions requested by the CARB. The model results were translated into inputs to a macroeconomic model (REMI) in analysis performed by the CARB to evaluate impacts to statewide economic growth and jobs. E3’s study results were presented in public stakeholder workshops and are reflected in the final Scoping Plan published in November 2017.

The California Air Resources Board, California Energy Commission, California Public Utilities Commission, California ISO, and governor’s office engaged E3 to evaluate the feasibility and cost of potential 2030 GHG targets. We focused on emission reduction strategies through 2030, with an eye toward meeting the state’s 2050 GHG reduction goal. Using our PATHWAYS model, we developed several scenarios that varied the mix of low-carbon technologies and the timing of deployment. PATHWAYS is a stock-and-flow model that encompasses the entire state economy with detailed representations of the building, industrial, transportation, and electricity sectors. E3 team members briefed Gov. Jerry Brown and members of the legislature on the results. Our work informed the governor’s Executive Order B-30-15, which calls for a 40 percent reduction in statewide GHG emissions by 2030 relative to 1990 levels. California agencies are using our results in ongoing implementation analysis of the state’s climate goals.